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International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks

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Author Info
Ronald I. McKinnon
Huw Pill
Abstract

February 1998

The severity of the financial crises enveloping the ‘tiger’ economies of South East Asia in 1997 came as a surprise to many observers. This paper uses a simple Fisherian model of the ‘overborrowing syndrome’ to compare the Asian crises of 1997 with earlier overborrowing episodes in Mexico and Chile. While important similarities exist, the crises in South East Asia have been exacerbated by the unhedged foreign exchange positions of Asian banks. These open currency positions not only imposed significant additional losses on the banks following devaluation, they also magnified the scale of overborrowing during the cycle’s initial boom phase. Failure to limit the exposure of banks to foreign exchange risk therefore increased the magnitude of the boom - bust overborrowing cycle both ex ante and ex post. The paper highlights the importance of effective regulation and supervision of capital markets, with a focus on limiting the speculative currency positions of banks, especially those that form the core of the domestic payments system and therefore enjoy a (possibly implicit) public guarantee. Improving the institutional infrastructure of financial supervision is the only effective way of mitigating the macroeconomic costs of overborrowing.

JEL Classification: O16, F32, F34, E44.

Keywords: Overborrowing, capital flows, financial crises, sectoral credit.

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Paper provided by Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 98004.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:98004

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Related research
Keywords: Overborrowing; capital flows; financial crises; sectoral credit;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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  1. Peter M. Garber & Subir Lall, 1996. "Derivative products in exchange rate crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 206-231.
  2. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1992. "Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 197-202, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1997. "Credible Economic Liberalizations and Overborrowing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 189-93, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-1), pages 253-316. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bacha, Obiyathulla I., 1997. "The Asian Currency Crisis - A Fait Accompli?," MPRA Paper 12756, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Soft Landings (February 2000), with Martin Schneider," UCLA Economics Online Papers 241, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zvika Neeman & Gerhard O. Orosel, 2001. "Credits, Crises, and Capital Controls: A Microeconomic Analysis," Vienna Economics Papers 0103, University of Vienna, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jesús Muñoz & P. Nicholas Snowden, 2006. "Floating without flotations-the exchange rate and the Mexican stock market: 1995-2001," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 299-318. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeanne, Olivier, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Working Papers 99018, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: The Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional Factors," CEPR Discussion Papers 3789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jan Toporowski & Giovanni Cozzi, 2006. "The Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_485, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  10. de la Torre, Augusto & Schmukler & Sergio L., 2004. "Coping with risk through mismatches : domestic and international financial contracts for emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3212, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Nan-Kuang Chen & Hsiao-Lei Chu, 2003. "Collateral Value and Forbearance Lending," CEP Discussion Papers dp0603, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jane Sneddon Little & Giovanni P. Olivei, 1999. "Why the interest in reform?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 41-97. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ramon Moreno & Bharat Trehan, 2000. "Common shocks and currency crises," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06055, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Bubbles and Crises The Economic Journal," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  16. Caprio Jr., Gerard, 1998. "Banking on crises : expensive lessons from recent financial crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1979, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Erinç Yeldan & Wenli Li & Xinshen Diao, 1998. "Challenges and Choices in Post-Crisis East-Asia : Simulations of Investment Policy Reform in an Intertemporal,Global Model," Departmental Working Papers 9816, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Nicholas Snowden, 1999. "The international financial architecture after the Asian crisis: learning from Las Vegas?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 107-119.
  19. Ramon Moreno, 1999. "Depreciation and recessions in East Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 27-40. [Downloadable!]
  20. Beja, Jr., Edsel, 2006. "Capital Flight and the Hollowing Out of the Philippine Economy in the Neoliberal Regime," MPRA Paper 4830, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Machiko Nissanke & Howard Stein, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Economic Development: Toward an Institutional Foundation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 287-308, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  22. Jane Sneddon Little & Giovanni P. Olivei, 1999. "Why the interest in reforming the International Monetary System?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 53-84. [Downloadable!]
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