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Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Antu Panini Murshid

Abstract

In this paper we compare various characteristics of the cross-country transmission of shocks in the financial markets of both advanced and emerging countries during two periods of globalization -- the pre-World War I classical gold standard era, 1880-1914, and the post-Bretton Woods era, 1975-2000. Based on principal components analysis on monthly spreads on long-term sovereign bond yields and on an EMP measure of currency crises, an index of global stress, and impulse response functions from VARs estimated using weekly data on short-term interest rates, we conclude that financial market shocks were more globalized before 1914 compared to the present. We postulate that this difference in systemic stability between the two eras of globalization reflects factors such as strong cross-country interdependence fostered through links to gold, the growing financial maturity of advanced countries, and the widening of the center to include a more diverse group of countries spanning several regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9019.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Publication status: published as Bordo, Michael D. and Antu Panini Murshid. "Globalization And Changing Patterns In The International Transmission Of Shocks In Financial Markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2006, v25(4,Jun), 655-674.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9019

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  3. Eichengreen Barry, 2002. "International Financial Crises: Is the Problem Growing?," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 43(1), pages 89-104, June.
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  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  8. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?," NBER Working Papers 6806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number eich92-1, May.
  10. Larry Neal & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2001. "Crises in The Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-32, Claremont Colleges.
  11. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  12. Michael D. Bordo & Antu Panini Murshid, 2002. "Globalization and Changing Patterns in the International Transmission of Shocks in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
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