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Testing For Asset Market Linkages: A New Approach Based On Time-Varying Copulas

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  • Hans Manner
  • Bertrand Candelon

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach based on time-varying copulas to test for the presence of increases in stock market interdependence (also known as shift contagion) after a financial crisis. We discuss the importance of considering simultaneously separate breaks in volatility and dependence. Without such consideration, the contagion test turns out to be biased. A sequential algorithm is proposed to tackle this problem. Applied to the recent 1997 Asian crisis, the analysis confirms that breaks in variances always precede those in the dependence parameter. Moreover, a significant 'J-shape' evolution of the dependence parameter is detected, supporting the idea of shift contagion. Copyright 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation 2010 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 364-384

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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:15:y:2010:i:3:p:364-384

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  1. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
  2. de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  4. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
  5. Candelon, Bertrand & Hecq, Alain & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2005. "Measuring common cyclical features during financial turmoil: Evidence of interdependence not contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1317-1334, December.
  6. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Measuring comovements by regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 0501, European Central Bank.
  8. Granger, Clive W.J. & Terasvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2006. "Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 43-57, May.
  9. Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, June.
  10. Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
  11. Andrew Patton, 2004. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," Working Papers wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  12. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  14. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173.
  17. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
  18. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Guang-Di & Chen, Chia-Shih, 2014. "Evidence of contagion in global REITs investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 148-158.
  2. Almeida, Carlos & Czado, Claudia, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian inference for stochastic time-varying copula models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1511-1527.

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