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Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis

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Abstract

This paper proposes a multivariate test for contagion that distinguishes between vulnerability, positive and negative contagion. The model provides a time series of contagion with which the existence, severity and significance of crisis periods can be endogenously determined. Eleven stock markets from the Asian region are analyzed during the Asian crisis, and contagion is significant in four periods. These episodes are split equally between positive and negative movements. Anecdotal evidence is matched to significant contagion, with events surrounding Hong Kong the key drivers.

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  • Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2006-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    2. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian Lucey, 2006. "Financial Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp114, IIIS.
    3. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Samantha Hum & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 997-1003.
    4. Baur, Dirk G. & Fry, Renée A., 2009. "Multivariate contagion and interdependence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 353-366, September.
    5. Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2010. "A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1062-1075, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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