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Financial Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

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  • Thomas Lagoarde-Segot
  • Brian Lucey

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate vulnerability to financial contagion in a set of expanding emerging markets of the Middle East and North Africa, during seven episodes of international financial crisis. Using Fry & Baur (2005) fixed-effect panel approach, we significantly reject the hypothesis of a joint regional contagion. However, using a battery of bivariate contagion tests based on Forbes and Rigobon (2002), Corsetti (2002), and Favero and Giavazzi (2002), we find evidence that each of the investigated markets suffered from contagion at least once out of the seven investigated crises. In conformity with the literature, our results suggest that the probability of being affected by contagion seems to increase as the MENA markets develop in size and liquidity, and become more integrated to the world’s markets.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp114.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp114

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  1. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
  3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
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  9. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
  10. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  11. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
  12. James Y. Yao & Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Donald J. Mathieson, 2002. "Extreme Contagion in Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/98, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
  14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
  15. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
  16. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. Collins, Daryl & Biekpe, Nicholas, 2003. "Contagion: a fear for African equity markets?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 285-297.
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