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Actually This Time Is Different

Author

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  • Renée Fry
  • Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao
  • Chrismin Tang

Abstract

Episodes of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets are examined during eight crises ranging from Asia in 1997-98 to the recent great recession of 2008-10. The analysis focuses on changes in the dependence structures of equity markets through correlation and coskewness to answer the question of whether the great recession is different to other crises in terms of shock transmission through contagion. The results show that ‘this time is different’ and that the great recession is truly a global financial crisis. Other US sourced crises do not affect other markets through contagion, and emerging market crises transmit unexpectedly.

Suggested Citation

  • Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-12
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/12_fry_hsiao_tang_2011.pdf
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    1. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 122-139, May.
    2. Sutsarun Lumiajiak & Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Marvin Wee & Robert Brooks, 2014. "Thai Financial Markets and Political Change," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-26, July.
    3. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert, 2015. "The credit risk–return puzzle: Impact of credit rating announcements in Australia and Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 37-55.
    4. Benjamin M. Tabak & Sergio R. S. Souza & Solange M. Guerra, 2013. "Assessing Systemic Risk in the Brazilian Interbank Market," Working Papers Series 318, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao, 2014. "Extremal Dependence and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2016. "Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-75.
    8. Tabak, Benjamin M. & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo & da Silva Medeiros, Maurício, 2016. "Contagion in CDS, banking and equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 120-134.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    10. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    11. Fabio Parlapiano & Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey, 2017. "Exchange rate risk exposure and the value of European firms," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 111-129, January.

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