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Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market

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  • Kim, Don H.
  • Loretan, Mico
  • Remolona, Eli M.

Abstract

In the turmoil of 2007-2009, troubles in a small segment of the US mortgage market escalated into a crisis of global proportions. A striking feature of the crisis is the contagion that hit Asia. In a region where direct exposures to problem mortgages were minimal, credit spreads for major borrowers widened even more than they did in Europe and the United States. We argue that the contagion was part of an amplification mechanism driven by valuation losses caused by the bursting of a global credit bubble. The valuation losses stemmed not so much from a reassessment of credit risks as from a global repricing of these risks. It was this repricing that was the main channel for contagion into Asian credit (and equity) markets. For empirical evidence, we analyze fluctuations in credit default swap (CDS) spreads and expected default frequencies (EDFs) for major Asian borrowers. We find that valuation losses on CDS contracts for these Asian borrowers arose in part from movements in global and region-specific risk pricing factors as well as from revisions to expected losses from defaults.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 314-326

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Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:314-326

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

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Keywords: Valuation losses Credit bubble Risk aversion Expected default frequencies;

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Cited by:
  1. Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi & Olfa Kaabia & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Financial Crises and Contagion Effects between the US and OECD Equity Markets," Working Papers 2014-451, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 104-113.
  3. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla I. & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2014. "The Role of Islamic Asset Classes in the Diversified Portfolios: Mean Variance Spanning Test," MPRA Paper 56857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Martha López, 2014. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 837, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Hsien-Yi LEE, 2011. "Contagion in International Stock Markets During the sub Prime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 141-158, December.
  6. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Alaoui, Abdelkader & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2013. "Comovement and resiliency of Islamic equity market: Evidence from GCC Islamic equity index based on wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 56980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Zalán Kocsis, 2013. "Global, Regional and Country-Specific Components of Financial Market Indicators: An Extraction Method and Applications," MNB Working Papers 2013/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  8. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.

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