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Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends

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Author Info
Jushan Bai () (Department of Economics, New York University, Newe York, New York 10003 USA, and School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University)
Chihwa Kao () (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244-1020)
Serena Ng () (Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA)

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Abstract

This paper studies estimation of panel cointegration models with cross-sectional dependence generated by unobserved global stochastic trends. The standard least squares estimator is, in general, inconsistent owing to the spuriousness induced by the unobservabla I(1) trends. We propose two iterative procedures that jointly estimate the slope parameters and the stochastic trends. The resulting estimators are referred to respectively as CupBC (continuously updated and bias-corrected) and the CupFM (continuously updated and fully modified) estimators. We establish their consistency and derive their limiting distributions. Both are asymptotically unbiased and asymptotically normal and permit inference to be conducted using standard test statistics. The estimates are also valid when there are mixed stationary and non-stationary factors, as well as when the factors are all stationary.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 90.

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Length: 86 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:90

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Phillips, P C B & Durlauf, S N, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 473-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2004. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 467-522, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1251, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gengenbach,Christian & Palm,Franz C. & Urbain,Jean-Pierre, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Testing in the Presence of Common Factors," Research Memoranda 050, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor-augmented Error Correction Models," Working Papers 335, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, . "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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