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Global, Regional and Country-Specific Components of Financial Market Indicators: An Extraction Method and Applications

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  • Zalán Kocsis

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

This paper presents a variance decomposition method - factor analysis with Procrustes rotation - that is capable of separating the global, regional and idiosyncratic components of various financial market indicators. The method is applied to indicators of five key financial markets: sovereign CDS spreads, stock indices, exchange rates, EMBI Global bond spreads and 10-year reference yields of domestic government bond markets. The results support the finding of the literature of a significant global component in most markets, but also point out the importance of regional correlations. Based on the method two practical applications are proposed: one, which is useful in the daily monitoring of financial markets to identify magnitudes of risk premium shocks of global, regional and country-specific origins; and another one, which gauges channels of risk propagation from the eurozone periphery.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2013/3.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2013/3

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Keywords: variance decomposition; factor analysis; Procrustes rotation; spillover; cross-country correlations; cross-asset correlations;

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  1. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
  2. Forbes, Kristin & Chinn, Menzie, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6z74b3x7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
  4. Marcel Fratzscher, 2011. "Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Don H Kim & Mico Loretan & Eli M Remolona, 2010. "Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 318-339 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Zalán Kocsis & Dénes Nagy, 2011. "Variance decomposition of sovereign CDS spreads," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 6(3), pages 36-50, October.
  9. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
  10. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39.
  11. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
  12. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
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