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On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility

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Author Info
Thomas J. Flavin () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
Ekaterini Panopoulou ()
Deren Unalmis () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

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Abstract

We analyze the stability of domestic financial linkages between periods of calm and turbulent market conditions. Our model develops a simultaneous test of shift contagion and bi-directional pure contagion, which is applied to the equity and currency markets of a group of East Asian emerging economies. Our results show a great deal of instability in these markets with widespread evidence of pure contagion in both directions. There is less evidence of shift contagion with the transmission of common shocks unchanged between regimes for the majority of countries.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1981108.pdf.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1981108.pdf

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.may.ie/academic/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: Shift contagion; Pure contagion; Financial market crises; Regime switching;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "Currency Market Contagion In The Asia-Pacific Region," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 379-395, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  6. Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp, 2008. "Unobservable Shocks as Carriers of Contagion: A Dynamic Analysis Using Identified Structural GARCH," NCER Working Paper Series 22, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
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  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Thomas J. flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2008. "Detecting shift and pure contagion in East Asian equity markets: A Unified Approach," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1890208.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Thomas J.Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "On the robustness of international portfolio diversification benefits to regime-switching volatility," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1801007.pdf, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Gravelle, Toni & Kichian, Maral & Morley, James, 2006. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 409-423, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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