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Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion

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  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Milunovich, George
  • Thorp, Susan

Abstract

We propose an identified structural GARCH model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises. We distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non-crisis markets, and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign crises. The model also enables us to connect unobserved structural shocks with their source markets using variance decompositions and to compare the size and dynamics of impulses during crises periods with tranquil period impulses. To illustrate, we apply the method to data from the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis which consists of a complicated set of interacting crises. We find significant hypersensitivity and contagion between these markets but also show that links may strengthen or weaken. Impulse response functions for an equally-weighted equity portfolio show the increasing dominance of Korean and Hong Kong shocks during the crises and covariance responses demonstrate multiple layers of contagion effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 1008-1021

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:1008-1021

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Keywords: Contagion Structural GARCH;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
  2. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Working Papers 2013-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Mardi Dungey & George Milunovich & Susan Thorp & Minxian Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Crisis Dating and Contagion Using Smooth Transition Structural GARCH," Research Paper Series 312, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2009. "News and correlations: an impulse response analysis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6804, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Andrea Cipollini & Iolanda Lo Cascio, 2010. "Testing for Contagion: a Time-Scale Decomposition," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 047, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
  6. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
  7. Baur, Dirk G., 2012. "Financial contagion and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2680-2692.
  8. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
  9. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
  10. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2013. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Research Paper Series 323, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  11. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov & Kerry-Ann Edwards, 2012. "The end of diversification," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1629-1636, November.
  12. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Tucker, Alan L. & Wang, David K. & Pao, Hsin-Ting, 2014. "Global contagion of market sentiment during the US subprime crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 17-26.

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