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The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence

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  • Yang, Jian
  • Zhou, Yinggang
  • Wang, Zijun

Abstract

Using monthly stock and bond return data in the past 150 years (1855-2001) for both the US and the UK, this study documents time-varying stock-bond correlation over macroeconomic conditions (the business cycle, the inflation environment and monetary policy stance). There are different patterns of time variation in stock-bond correlations over the business cycle between US and UK, which implies that bonds may be a better hedge against stock market risk and offer more diversification benefits to stock investors in the US than in the UK. Further, there is a general pattern across both the US and the UK during the post-1923 subperiod and during the whole sample period: higher stock-bond correlations tend to follow higher short rates and (to a lesser extent) higher inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:670-680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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