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Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets

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  • Lien, Donald
  • Yang, Li
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Abstract

The dynamic minimum variance hedge ratios (MVHRs) have been commonly estimated using the Bivariate GARCH model that overlooks the basis effect on the time-varying variance-covariance of spot and futures returns. This paper proposes an alternative specification of the BGARCH model in which the effect is incorporated for estimating MVHRs. Empirical investigation in commodity markets suggests that the basis effect is asymmetric, i.e., the positive basis has greater impact than the negative basis on the variance and covariance structure. Both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons of the MVHR performance reveal that the model with the asymmetric effect provides greater risk reduction than the conventional models, illustrating importance of the asymmetric effect when modeling the joint dynamics of spot and futures returns and hence estimating hedging strategies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 187-198

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:187-198

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
  2. Jean‐Francois Carpantier & Besik Samkharadze, 2013. "The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 868-888, 09.
  3. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The time-varying and asymmetric dependence between crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from the Mixture copula-based ARJI–GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2298-2309.
  4. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  5. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," MPRA Paper 44395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.
  7. CARPANTIER, Jean-François & DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2012. "Commodities volatility and the theory of storage," CORE Discussion Papers 2012037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Jean-François Carpantier & Arnaud Dufays, 2013. "Commodities Inventory Effect," CREA Discussion Paper Series 13-07, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  9. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Hedging with Chinese metal futures," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 123-138.
  10. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2010. "Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2742-2752, November.
  11. Su, EnDer, 2013. "Stock index hedge using trend and volatility regime switch model considering hedging cost," MPRA Paper 49190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gencay, 2012. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," Working Papers 201218, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  13. Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang & Wang, Zijun, 2009. "The stock-bond correlation and macroeconomic conditions: One and a half centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 670-680, April.
  14. Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
  15. Ben-Abdallah, Ramzi & Ben-Ameur, Hatem & Breton, Michèle, 2009. "An analysis of the true notional bond system applied to the CBOT T-bond futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 534-545, March.
  16. Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
  17. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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