Contagion as a domino effect in global stock markets
AbstractThis paper shows that stock market contagion occurs as a domino effect, where confined local crashes evolve into more widespread crashes. Using a novel framework based on ordered logit regressions we model the occurrence of local, regional and global crashes as a function of their past occurrences and financial variables. We find significant evidence that global crashes do not occur abruptly but are preceded by local and regional crashes. Besides this form of contagion, interdependence shows up by the effect of interest rates, bond returns and stock market volatility on crash probabilities. When it comes to forecasting global crashes, our model outperforms a binomial model for global crashes only.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf
Contagion Stock market crises Interdependence Systemic risk;
Other versions of this item:
- Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008. "Contagion as Domino Effect in Global Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-071-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
- M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo, 2004.
"Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies,"
IMF Working Papers
04/78, International Monetary Fund.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
- Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
- Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
- Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
- McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
- de Vries, Casper G & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001.
"Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-071/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 0071, European Central Bank.
- Mico Loretan & William B. English, 2000. "Evaluating "correlation breakdowns" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008.
"Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States' Stock Markets,"
2008-10, Swiss National Bank.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States’ Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-34, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Kamin, Steven B., 1999. "The current international financial crisis:: how much is new?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 501-514, August.
- Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003.
"A Primer on Financial Contagion,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, 09.
- Steven B. Kamin, 1999. "The current international financial crisis: how much is new?," International Finance Discussion Papers 636, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000.
"A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
- Walden, Johan & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2551-2569, August.
- Chrismin Tang & Mardi Dungey & Vance Martin & Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Renee Fry, 2010.
"Are Financial Crises Alike?,"
IMF Working Papers
10/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Portfolio implications of systemic crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2347-2369, August.
- Rustam Ibragimov & Johan Walden, 2006. "The Limits of Diversification When Losses May Be Large," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2104, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Keijzer, Tjeert & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2006. "Linkages between extreme stock market and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 528-550, April.
- Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
- Stefanie Kleimeier & Thorsten Lehnert & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2008. "Measuring Financial Contagion Using Time-Aligned Data: The Importance of the Speed of Transmission of Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 493-508, 08.
- Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, 04.
- Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
- Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
- Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.