Testing for “Contagion” of the Subprime Crisis on the Middle East and North African Stock Markets: A Markov Switching EGARCH Approach
AbstractIn this paper, we investigate whether the recent financial turmoil which arose in the United States has contaminated the Middle East and North African countries (MENA). In contrast to Lagoard-Segot and Lucey (2009), we try to identify the existence of pure contagion (Masson, 1999) rather than shift-contagion (Rigobon, 2003). Then, we explicitly define financial “contagion” in accordance with Eichengreen et al. (1996) and we extend the Cerra and Saxena (2002) methodology by using a Markov-Switching EGARCH model introduced by Henry (2009) in order to identify contaminated MENA stock markets. Our results provide evidence of a persistence of recession characterised by low mean/high variance regimes which coincides with the third phase of the subprime crisis. In addition, there is evidence of mean and volatility contagion in MENA stock markets caused by the US stock market.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): 27 (2012)
Issue (Month): ()
Subprime Crisis; Contagion; MENA Stock Markets; Markov Switching EGARCH Model;
Other versions of this item:
- Wajih Khallouli & René Sandretto, 2012. "Testing for “contagion” of the subprime crisis on the Middle East and North African stock markets : A Markov Switching EGARCH approach," Post-Print halshs-00522683, HAL.
- Wajih Khallouli & Modibo René Sandretto, 2010. "Testing for “contagion” of the subprime crisis on the Middle East and North African stock markets : A Markov Switching EGARCH approach," Working Papers 1022, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
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