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Extremal Dependence and Contagion

Author

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  • Renée Fry-McKibbin
  • Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao

Abstract

A new test for financial market contagion based on changes in extremal dependence defined as co-kurtosis and co-volatility is developed to identify the propagation mechanism of shocks across international financial markets. The proposed approach captures changes in various aspects of the asset return relationships such as crossmarket mean and skewness (co-kurtosis) as well as cross-market volatilities (covolatility). In an empirical application involving the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the results show that significant contagion effects are widespread from the US banking sector to global equity markets and banking sectors through either the co-kurtosis or the co-volatility channel, reinforcing that higher order moments matter during crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao, 2014. "Extremal Dependence and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2017. "Joint tests of contagion with applications to financial crises," CAMA Working Papers 2017-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Martin, Vance L., 2018. "Global and regional financial integration in East Asia and the ASEAN," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-221.
    3. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-skewness; Co-kurtosis; Co-volatility; Contagion testing; Extremal dependence; Financial crisis; Lagrangian multiplier tests.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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