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The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis

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  • Essahbi Essaadi

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Jamel Jouini

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579, Université 7 Novembre de Carthage - université 7 Novembre de Carthage)

  • Wajih Khallouli

    (Université de Tunis - Université de Tunis)

Abstract

In this paper, we are interested in testing for contagion caused by the Thai bath collapse in July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change in the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt the Bai and Perron's (1998) structural break approach to detect the endogenous break points in the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach allows solving the misspecification problem of crisis window. Our results indicate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00201220.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00201220

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Keywords: sequential selection procedure ; shift-contagion ; time-varying correlation;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 351-365, January.
  2. Dimitris Kenourgios & Dimitrios Dimitriou, 2014. "Contagion Effects of the Global Financial Crisis in US and European Real Economy Sectors," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 275-288, June.
  3. Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Shian-Chang Huang, 2012. "Time-Varying Dependency and Structural Changes in Currency Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 94-127, March.
  4. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
  5. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2011. "The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis," GEMF Working Papers 2011-16, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  6. Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Measuring Co-Movements of CDS Premia during the Greek Debt Crisis," Diskussionsschriften, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft dp1104, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  7. Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables : a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00550460, HAL.
  9. Houssem Rachdi, 2010. "The Link between International Supervision and Banking Crises," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 321-332, September.
  10. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.

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