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Looking for Contagion: the Evidence from the ERM

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  • Favero, Carlo A
  • Giavazzi, Francesco

Abstract

This paper applies a full-information technique to test for the presence of contagion across the money markets of ERM members. We show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for interdependence, a test for contagion based o a full information technique is more powerful. We test for the presence of contagion after having identified episodes of country-specific shocks, whose effect on other European markets is significantly different from those predictable from the estimated channels of interdependence. Using data on three-month interest rate spreads on German rates for seven countries over the period 1988–1992, we are unable to reject the null of contagion. Our evidence suggests that contagion within the ERM was a general phenomenon not limited to a subset of weaker countries, the exception in our sample being France. Our result are mute as to the question of what lies behind these episodes of contagion; they show, however, that it is not always that one only detects contagion when one applies poor statistical techniques.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2591.

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Date of creation: Oct 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2591

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Related research

Keywords: Contagion; ERM; Interdependence;

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Cited by:
  1. Claudia M. Buch, 2001. "Cross-Border Banking and Transmission Mechanisms: The Case of Europe," Kiel Working Papers 1063, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2003. "Shift Contagion in Asset Markets," Working Papers 03-5, Bank of Canada.
  3. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2003. "Contagion and causality: an empirical investigation of four Asian crisis episodes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-186, April.
  4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
  5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises," Working Papers 2010-08, CEPII research center.
  6. Sergio L. Schmukler, 2004. "Financial globalization: gain and pain for developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 39 - 66.
  7. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
  8. Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo & Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Margarida Abreu, 2003. "Contagion Phenomena in Financial Crises: Evidence from the Portuguese and Spanish Exchange Rate Crises in the Early Nineties," Working Papers Department of Economics 2003/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  10. gulielmo maria caporale & rea cipollini & nicola spagnolo, 2004. "Testing For Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis," International Finance 0406003, EconWPA.

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