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Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?

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  • Kenneth Rogoff

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  • Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:145:y:2009:i:1:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-009-0006-5
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    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    21. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2017. "Pricing-to-Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 6, pages 155-185, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Tanya Molodtsova & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2011. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 535-552, March.
    23. Paul R. Krugman, 1985. "Is the strong dollar sustainable?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 103-155.
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    25. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark: Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1175-1194, August.
    26. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729, Elsevier.
    27. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    28. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    29. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 2017. "Pricing-to-Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 6, pages 155-185 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    31. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    32. Bilson, John F. O., 1979. "The deutsche mark/dollar rate : A monetary analysis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-101, January.
    33. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "Understanding International Price Differences Using Barcode Data," NBER Working Papers 14017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
    35. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
    36. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    37. Paul Krugman, 2007. "Will there be a dollar crisis? [‘Current account fact and fiction’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 436-467.
    38. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    39. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    40. Peter Isard, 1990. "Fiscal conditions and internationalization: implications for monetary policies and financial conditions," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 276-304.
    41. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    42. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Apergis, Nicholas & Zestos, George K. & Shaltayev, Dmitriy S., 2012. "Do market fundamentals determine the Dollar–Euro exchange rate?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15.
    2. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Robert Hill & Daniel Melser, 2015. "Benchmark averaging and the measurement of changes in international income inequality," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 767-801, November.
    4. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    5. Cordella, Tito & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "What makes a currency procyclical? An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 240-259.
    6. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    7. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia´s exchange rate survey," Borradores de Economia 9999, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Kühl, Michael, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    13. Nicolas Cachanosky, 2014. "The Mises-Hayek business cycle theory, fiat currencies and open economies," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 281-299, September.
    14. Polbin, Andrey & Shumilov, Andrei, 2020. "Модель Зависимости Обменного Курса Рубля От Цен На Нефть С Марковскими Переключениями Режимов [Modeling the relationship between the Russian ruble exchange rate and oil prices: A Markov regime swit," MPRA Paper 102450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Arash, Aloosh, 2011. "Variance Risk Premium Differentials and Foreign Exchange Returns," MPRA Paper 40829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Aug 2012.
    17. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Forecasting; Current account; Purchasing power parity; F31; F32; F37; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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