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Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know? Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Kenneth Rogoff ()
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics .
Volume (Year): 145 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 1-12
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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:145:y:2009:i:1:p:1-12Contact details of provider: Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/10290/index.htm
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Keywords: Exchange rates ; Forecasting ; Current account ; Purchasing power parity ; F31 ; F32 ; F37 ; F41 ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates? ,"
Journal of International Economics ,
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Other versions:
Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
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"Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates? ,"
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"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates ,"
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"On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials ,"
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Tanya, Molodtsova & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David, 2008.
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Other versions: Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976.
"Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008.
"The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting ,"
NBER Working Papers
14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983.
"Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample? ,"
Journal of International Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007.
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NBER Working Papers
13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions: Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
Other versions:
Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals ,"
NBER Working Papers
10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Exchange rates and fundamentals ,"
Working Paper Series
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"Exchange rates and fundamentals ,"
Proceedings ,
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[Downloadable!] Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? ,"
NBER Working Papers
13901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions:
Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2008.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? ,"
Working Papers
08-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2008.
"Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices? ,"
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UWEC-2008-11, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
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Other versions: Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004.
"The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation ,"
MPRA Paper
14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Other versions:
Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation ,"
NBER Working Papers
8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976.
" A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence ,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
Kenneth Rogoff, 1996.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle ,"
Journal of Economic Literature ,
American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983.
"The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification? ,"
NBER Chapters ,
in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions: Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995.
"Empirical research on nominal exchange rates ,"
Handbook of International Economics ,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729
Elsevier.
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Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43, January.
Other versions:
Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate ,"
NBER Working Papers
9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate ,"
IEHAS Discussion Papers
0307, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
[Downloadable!] Imbs, Jean & Mumtaz, Haroon & Ravn, Morten O. & Rey, Hélène, 2003.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003.
"PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate ,"
IMF Working Papers
03/68, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!] Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982.
"Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
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Jón Steinsson, 2008.
"The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models ,"
NBER Working Papers
13910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions:
Jon Steinsson, 2005.
"The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models ,"
Economics
wp28_jonst, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
[Downloadable!] Jón Steinsson, 2008.
"The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-33, March.
[Downloadable!] Mark, Nelson C, 1995.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
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Other versions: Andrea Ferrero & Mark Gertler & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2008.
"Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy ,"
NBER Working Papers
13906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions: Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive? ,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
1033, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive? ,"
NBER Working Papers
9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie David Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive? ,"
IMF Working Papers
04/73, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!] Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003.
"Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive? ,"
Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series
1011, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
[Downloadable!] Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005.
"Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive? ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007.
"The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited ,"
NBER Chapters ,
in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004.
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited ,"
NBER Working Papers
10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005.
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited ,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
1063, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
[Downloadable!] Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005.
"The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005.
"The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!] Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005.
"The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
[Downloadable!] Paul Krugman, 2007.
"Will there be a dollar crisis? ,"
Economic Policy ,
CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 22, pages 435-467, 07.
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Paul R. Krugman, 1985.
"Is the strong dollar sustainable? ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 103-155.
Other versions: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, 08.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
International Finance
0505004, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!] Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series
1057, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
[Downloadable!] Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey, 2005.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
NBER Working Papers
11155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Helene Rey & Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2005.
"International Financial Adjustment ,"
2005 Meeting Papers
169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
[Downloadable!] Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005.
"International financial adjustment ,"
Proceedings ,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009.
"How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach ,"
Ruhr Economic Papers
0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
[Downloadable!]
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