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Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics

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  • Ferreira Filipe, Sara

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature on international portfolio choice in several ways. First, I generalize the model of Dunne et al. (2010) and derive order flow as the result of correlated belief changes by heterogeneous investors. This strategy delivers testable implications for the daily dynamics of stock flows, equity returns, and exchange rate changes. Second, I empirically confirm these conditions using fifteen years of high-frequency data for US stocks and daily data for twenty US bilateral exchange rates. Third, the model relies on differences in the volatility of country-specific shocks to account for the empirical results. It can explain why the ‘portfolio rebalancing motive’ is not important for commodity countries, as well as the asymmetric structure of currency and stock returns.

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  • Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:359-381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2012.03.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Muhammad Aftab & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Kate Phylaktis, 2021. "Economic integration and the currency and equity markets nexus," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5278-5301, October.
    3. Andriansyah, Andriansyah & Messinis, George, 2019. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test," MPRA Paper 97992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:s1:p:27-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
    6. Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mr. Subhanij Tientip & Mr. Mico Loretan, 2012. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand," IMF Working Papers 2012/214, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 70-92.
    8. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schembri, Lawrence L., 2014. "Productivity, commodity prices and the real exchange rate: The long-run behavior of the Canada–US exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 537-551.
    9. Stanley W. Black, 2015. "The Portfolio Theory of Exchange Rates—Then and Now," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 379-386, May.
    10. Ülkü, Numan & Fatullayev, Sabutay & Diachenko, Daria, 2016. "Can risk-rebalancing explain the negative correlation between stock return differential and currency? Or, does source status drive it?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-54.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Order flow; Stock returns; International portfolio rebalancing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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