Analyzing Time-Frequency Relationship between Oil Price and Exchange Rate in Pakistan through Wavelets
AbstractThis study analyzes the time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency. The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicate that covariance between oil price and exchange rate are unable to give clear-cut results but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10~15 months scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate. However; in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48086.
Date of creation: 23 Apr 2013
Date of revision: 05 Jul 2013
Oil prices; exchange rate; Pakistan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2013-07-15 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2013-07-15 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Nadeem Ahmad & Abu Wahid, 2010. "Savings–Investment Correlation and Capital Outflow: The Case of Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 80-97, May.
- Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
- Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
- Ibrahim Turhan & Erk Hacihasanoglu & Ugur Soytas, 2013.
"Oil Prices and Emerging Market Exchange Rates,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(S1), pages 21-36, January.
- M. Ibrahim Turhan & Erk Hacihasanoglu & Ugur Soytas, 2012. "Oil Prices and Emerging Market Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1201, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Hacihasanoglu, Erk & Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil prices and emerging market exchange rates," MPRA Paper 36477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2011. "Investigating the oil price-exchange rate nexus: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers 2011015, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
- Chaudhuri, Kausik & Daniel, Betty C., 1998. "Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 231-238, February.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam & Naveed, Aamir, 2011.
"Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan,"
32520, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2011.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
- Rautava, Jouko, 2004. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy--a cointegration approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-327, June.
- van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998.
"Exchange Rates and Oil Prices,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-94, November.
- Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the `Dutch Diseaseâ€™: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/103, International Monetary Fund.
- Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2005.
"China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar,"
2005-16, CEPII research center.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
- Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares & Nuno Azevedo, 2007. "Using Wavelets to decompose time-frequency economic relations," NIPE Working Papers 17/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & mohammad, Mafizur Rahman, 2011. "The dynamic of financial development, imports, foreign direct investment and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 32181, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jul 2011.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
- Jouko Rautava, 2002.
"The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia‘s economy,"
- Rautava, Jouko, 2002. "The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
- Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012.
"Does Trade Openness Affect Long Run Growth? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests for Pakistan,"
37391, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Mar 2012.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
- Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2009. "On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Rickne, Johanna, 2009. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate Movements in Oil-Exporting Countries: The Role of Institutions," Working Paper Series 810, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 15 Oct 2010.
- Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-93, September.
- Samia Nasreen, 2011. "Export-Growth Linkages In Selected Asian Developing Countries: Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(1), pages 1-13, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.