The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models
AbstractThe US dollar is used as the primary currency of international crude oil trading; as such, the recent substantial depreciation in the US dollar has resulted in a corresponding increase in crude oil prices. In addition, oil price and exchange-rate returns have been shown to be skewed and leptokurtic, and to exhibit an asymmetric or tail dependence structure. Therefore, this study proposes dynamic copula-based GARCH models to explore the dependence structure between the oil price and the US dollar exchange rate. More importantly, an asset-allocation strategy is implemented to evaluate economic value and confirm the efficiency of the copula-based GARCH models. In terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance, a dynamic strategy based on the CGARCH model with the Student-t copula exhibits greater economic benefits than static and other dynamic strategies. In addition, the positive feedback trading activities are statistically significant within the oil market, but this information does not enhance the economic benefits from the perspective of an asset-allocation decision. Finally, a more risk-averse investor generates a higher fee for switching from a static strategy to a dynamic strategy based on copula-based GARCH models.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Oil; Exchange rate; Co-movement; Time-varying copula; Economic value;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2009. "Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 597-615, October.
- Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/32, International Monetary Fund.
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2003.
"Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
- Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
- Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
- Andrew Patton, 2004.
"Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence,"
wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Lanza, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo & McAleer, Michael, 2006.
"Modeling dynamic conditional correlations in WTI oil forward and futures returns,"
Finance Research Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 114-132, June.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Lanza & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Modelling Dynamic Conditional Correlations in WTI Oil Forward and Futures Returns," Working Papers 2004.72, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March.
- Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008.
"Oil price Dynamics and Speculation. A Multivariate Financial Approach,"
Working Papers - Economics
wp2008_15.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
- Yufeng Han, 2006. "Asset Allocation with a High Dimensional Latent Factor Stochastic Volatility Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 237-271.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992.
"Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation,"
RCER Working Papers
322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Yousefi, Ayoub & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2004. "The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 783-799, September.
- Bekiros, S. & Diks, C.G.H., 2007.
"The Relationship between Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Causality,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
07-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
- Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.
- Aloui, Riadh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "A time-varying copula approach to oil and stock market dependence: The case of transition economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-221.
- Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
- Krenar Avdulaj & Jozef Barunik, 2013. "Are benefits from oil - stocks diversification gone? A new evidence from a dynamic copulas and high frequency data," Papers 1307.5981, arXiv.org.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.