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Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China

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Author Info
Declan Curran ()
Michael Funke ()
Jue Wang ()

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Abstract

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified. This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth. Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the small scale factor model approach leads to successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.

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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20710.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20710

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Related research
Keywords: Regional Economic Growth; China;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
R11 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Analysis of Growth, Development, and Changes

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  1. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael & Wang, Jue, 2007. "Economic growth across space and time: subprovincial evidence from Mainland China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ajit Bhalla & Shujie Yao & Zongyi Zhang, 2003. "Regional economic performance in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 25-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Declan Curran & Michael Funke & Jue Wang, 2007. "Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20710, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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