Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China

Contents:

Author Info

  • Declan Curran

    ()

  • Michael Funke

    ()

  • Jue Wang

    ()

Abstract

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified. This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth. Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the small scale factor model approach leads to successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/Bofit2107.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20710.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20710

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Von-Melle-Park 5 D-20146 Hamburg
Phone: : +49 (0)40 42838-4674
Fax: +49 (0)40 42838-5546
Web page: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/onTEAM/grafik/1223630633/RePec/ham
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Regional Economic Growth; China;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. PARK, Byeong & TURLACH, Berwin, 1992. "Practical performance of several data driven bandwidth selectors," CORE Discussion Papers 1992005, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Bulent Unel & Harm Zebregs, . "The Dynamics of Provincial Growth in China: A Nonparametric Approach," Departmental Working Papers 2007-03, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
  3. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Kirchert, Daniel & Pan, Jiancheng, 2002. "Disparities in Chinese economic development: approaches on different levels of aggregation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 31-54, April.
  4. Yingqi Wei & Xiaming Liu & David Parker & Kirit Vaidya, 1999. "The Regional Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 857-867.
  5. Sylvie DEMURGER & SACHS & Wing Thye WOO & BAO & CHANG & MELLINGER, 2001. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Working Papers 200109, CERDI.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. repec:fth:louvco:9205 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Derek C. Jones & Cheng Li & Ann L. Owen*, 2003. "Growth and Regional Inequality in China During the Reform Era," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-561, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Song, Shunfeng & Chu, George S. -F. & Chao, Rongqing, 2000. "Intercity regional disparity in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 246-261.
  12. Yao, Shujie & Zhang, Zongyi, 2001. "On Regional Inequality and Diverging Clubs: A Case Study of Contemporary China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 466-484, September.
  13. Robert W. Fogel, 2006. "Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives," NBER Working Papers 12122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ajit Bhalla & Shujie Yao & Zongyi Zhang, 2003. "Regional economic performance in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 25-39, March.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
  17. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. "Growth Regressions and What the Textbooks Don't Tell You," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 181-205, July.
  18. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March.
  19. Krasker, William S. & Kuh, Edwin & Welsch, Roy E., 1983. "Estimation for dirty data and flawed models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 651-698 Elsevier.
  20. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
  21. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  22. Quah, Danny T, 1996. " Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
  23. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Funke & Hao Yu, 2009. "Economic Growth Across Chinese Provinces: In Search of Innovation-Driven Gains," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20909, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20710

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.