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Chinese Economic Growth: Sources And Prospects

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  • Wing Thye Woo

Abstract

China's impressive growth is rooted in the liberalization of a surplus labor economy that has a high saving rate. The reallocation of surplus agriculture labor to industry and service sectors generates a growth effect that shows up in total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Net TFP, the resulting residual, contains the true measure of technological progress (among other effects). Taking account of mismeasurement problems, especially of value added in the industry sector, I calculated a plausible range of estimates for each source of growth. My point estimates for each of their contribution to the average annual 9.3 percent growth rate in the 1979-93 period growth rate in the 1985-93 subperiod are, respectively: 1979-93 1985-93 4.9 5.5 percentage points from capital accumulation 1.3 1.1 percentage points from labor force expansion. 1.1 1.3 percentage points from reallocation of labor from agriculture 0.2 0.3 percentage points from inconsistent use of base prices, 0.5Ð0.7 0.9Ð1.2 percentage points from overstatement of industrial growth, 1.1-1.3 0.3Ð0.6 percentage points from net TFP growth.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 96-08.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:96-08

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Cited by:
  1. Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao, Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," NBER Working Papers 8897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 1997. "Understanding China's Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 5935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2005. "Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3801, The World Bank.
  4. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2011. "The International Effects of China’s Growth, Trade and Education Booms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(10), pages 1703-1725, October.
  5. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
  6. Meng, Xin & Zhang, Dandan, 2010. "Labour Market Impact of Large Scale Internal Migration on Chinese Urban 'Native' Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 5288, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  8. Xiang Ao & Lilyan E. Fulginiti, 2005. "Productivity Growth in China: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Development and Comp Systems 0502024, EconWPA.
  9. Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Granger causality tests among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302.
  10. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession on its Neighbors," Departmental Working Papers 2003-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  11. Woo, Wing Thye, 2001. "Recent claims of China's economic exceptionalism: Reflections inspired by WTO accession," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 107-136.
  12. Harry X. Wu, 2006. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-176, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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