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Chinese Economic Growth: Sources And Prospects

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Wing Thye Woo

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Abstract

China's impressive growth is rooted in the liberalization of a surplus labor economy that has a high saving rate. The reallocation of surplus agriculture labor to industry and service sectors generates a growth effect that shows up in total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Net TFP, the resulting residual, contains the true measure of technological progress (among other effects).

Taking account of mismeasurement problems, especially of value added in the industry sector, I calculated a plausible range of estimates for each source of growth. My point estimates for each of their contribution to the average annual 9.3 percent growth rate in the 1979-93 period growth rate in the 1985-93 subperiod are, respectively: 1979-93 1985-93 4.9 5.5 percentage points from capital accumulation 1.3 1.1 percentage points from labor force expansion. 1.1 1.3 percentage points from reallocation of labor from agriculture 0.2 0.3 percentage points from inconsistent use of base prices, 0.5Ð0.7 0.9Ð1.2 percentage points from overstatement of industrial growth, 1.1-1.3 0.3Ð0.6 percentage points from net TFP growth.

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Paper provided by California Davis - Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics with number 96-08.

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Handle: RePEc:fth:caldec:96-08

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  1. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2005. "Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3801, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao, Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," NBER Working Papers 8897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession on its Neighbors," Departmental Working Papers 2003-17, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Xiang Ao & Lilyan E. Fulginiti, 2005. "Productivity Growth in China: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Development and Comp Systems 0502024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wong Tsen, 2006. "Granger causality tests among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952--1999," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 1997. "Understanding China's Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 5935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," NBER Working Papers 12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

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