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From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

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Author Info
Rodrik, Dani
Subramanian, Arvind

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Abstract

Most conventional accounts of India’s recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This Paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occurred around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth – favourable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment – and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4371.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4371

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Keywords: economic growth india liberalization

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O50 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  4. Dani Rodrik, 2003. "Growth Strategies," NBER Working Papers 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Angus Deaton & Jean Dreze, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in India: A Re-Examination," Working Papers 184, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 1997. "Understanding China's Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1793, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Unel Bulent, 2003. "Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades," IMF Working Papers 03/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Angus Deaton & Jed Friedman & Vivi Alatas, 2004. "Purchasing power parity exchange rates from household survey data: India and Indonesia," Working Papers 173, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  17. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
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  19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  20. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2004. "Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 91-134, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen Redding & F Zilibotti, 2005. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence fromDismantling the License Raj in India," STICERD - Development Economics Papers 45, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Joydeep Mukherji, 2007. "India: Asia’s Next Productivity Success Story," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 38-52, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gunjan Sharma, 2006. "Competing or Collaborating Siblings? Industrial and Trade Policies in India," Working Papers 0610, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sophie Chauvin & Francoise Lemoine, 2005. "L’economie indienne : changements structurels et perspectives a long-terme," Working Papers 2005-04, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Escribano, Alvaro & Guasch, J. Luis, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the investment climate on productivity using firm-level data : methodology and the cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3621, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Allen, Franklin & Chakrabarti, Rajesh & De, Sankar & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2006. "Financing firms in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3975, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Petia Topalova, 2008. "India: Is the Rising Tide Lifting All Boats?," IMF Working Papers 08/54, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Weisbrot & Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2006. "The Scorecard on Development: 25 Years of Diminished Progress," Working Papers 31, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Gupta, Abhay, 2007. "Indian Economy - TFP or Factor Accumulation: A Comprehensive Growth Accounting Exercise," MPRA Paper 10316, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Haaparanta, Pertti & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2005. "Reforms and Confidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Shubhashis Gangopadhyay & Shagun Krishnan, 2006. "Reforms, Entry and Productivity: Some Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 2086, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," NBER Working Papers 10566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-Led Industrialization in India: Assessment and Lessons," MPRA Paper 1276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  15. Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Tripolar century: USA, China and India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 160, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sumon Bhaumik & Shubhasish Gangopadhyay & Shagun Krishnan, 2006. "Policy, Economic Federalism & Product Market Entry: The Indian Experience," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp843, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  17. Raghbendra Jha, 2004. "The Political Economy of Recent Economic Growth in India," ASARC Working Papers 2004-12, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  18. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections," IMF Working Papers 04/118, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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