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From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

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  • Rodrik, Dani
  • Subramanian, Arvind

Abstract

Most conventional accounts of India’s recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This Paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occurred around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth – favourable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment – and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4371.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4371

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Keywords: economic growth; india; liberalization;

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References

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  1. Petia Topalova, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity," IMF Working Papers 04/28, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  5. Angus Deaton & Jean Dreze, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in India: A Re-Examination," Working Papers 184, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
  6. Dani Rodrik, 2003. "Growth Strategies," NBER Working Papers 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, . "Understanding China'S Economic Performance," Department of Economics 97-04, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002. "Economic Development as Self-Discovery," Working Paper Series rwp02-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. Pritchett, Lant, 1995. "Divergence, big time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1522, The World Bank.
  13. Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi & Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Institutions Rule," IMF Working Papers 02/189, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
  17. Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Kohli, Atul, 1989. "Politics of economic liberalization in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 305-328, March.
  19. Richard Hemming & Woosik Chu & Charles Collyns & Karen Elizabeth Parker & Ajai Chopra & Oliver Fratzscher, 1995. "India," IMF Occasional Papers 134, International Monetary Fund.
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