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From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

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Rodrik, Dani (Harvard U)
Subramanian, Arvind (International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract

Most conventional accounts of India's recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occured around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth (favorable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment) and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument. We also find that registered manufacturing built up in previous decades played an important role in influencing the pattern of growth across the Indian states.

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Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp04-013.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp04-013

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  1. Burgess, Robin & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Toward a microeconomics of growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3257, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Petia Topalova, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India," IMF Working Papers 04/28, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dani Rodrik & Francesco Trebbi & Arvind Subramanian, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 02/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ajai Chopra & Charles Collyns & Richard Hemming & Karen Elizabeth Parker & Woosik Chu & Oliver Fratzscher, 1995. "India: Economic Reform and Growth," IMF Occasional Papers 134, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Dani Rodrik, 2003. "Growth Strategies," NBER Working Papers 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Angus Deaton & Jean Dreze, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in India: A Re-Examination," Working Papers 184, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 1997. "Understanding China's Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1793, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  12. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Unel Bulent, 2003. "Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades," IMF Working Papers 03/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2002. "Can Labour Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India," STICERD - Development Economics Papers 33, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Angus Deaton & Jed Friedman & Vivi Alatas, 2004. "Purchasing power parity exchange rates from household survey data: India and Indonesia," Working Papers 173, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
  18. Kohli, Atul, 1989. "Politics of economic liberalization in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 305-328, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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