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From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

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Author Info
Dani Rodrik
Arvind Subramanian

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Abstract

Most conventional accounts of India's recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occured around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth favorable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument. We also find that registered manufacturing built up in previous decades played an important role in influencing the pattern of growth across the Indian states.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10376.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10376

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O5 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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  1. Petia Topalova, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India," IMF Working Papers 04/28, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dani Rodrik & Francesco Trebbi & Arvind Subramanian, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 02/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dani Rodrik, 2003. "Growth Strategies," NBER Working Papers 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," NBER Working Papers 10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Angus Deaton & Jean Dreze, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in India: A Re-Examination," Working Papers 184, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, 1997. "Understanding China's Economic Performance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1793, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pritchett, Lant, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Unel Bulent, 2003. "Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades," IMF Working Papers 03/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kohli, Atul, 1989. "Politics of economic liberalization in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 305-328, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
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  16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  17. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2004. "Can Labor Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 91-134, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joydeep Mukherji, 2007. "India: Asia’s Next Productivity Success Story," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 38-52, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mark Weisbrot & Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2006. "The Scorecard on Development: 25 Years of Diminished Progress," Working Papers 31, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Haaparanta, Pertti & Pirttilä, Jukka, 2005. "Reforms and Confidence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," NBER Working Papers 10566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Tripolar century: USA, China and India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 160, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  6. Raghbendra Jha, 2004. "The Political Economy of Recent Economic Growth in India," ASARC Working Papers 2004-12, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen Redding & F Zilibotti, 2005. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence fromDismantling the License Raj in India," STICERD - Development Economics Papers 45, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Gunjan Sharma, 2006. "Competing or Collaborating Siblings? Industrial and Trade Policies in India," Working Papers 0610, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sophie Chauvin & Francoise Lemoine, 2005. "L’economie indienne : changements structurels et perspectives a long-terme," Working Papers 2005-04, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Escribano, Alvaro & Guasch, J. Luis, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the investment climate on productivity using firm-level data : methodology and the cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3621, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Allen, Franklin & Chakrabarti, Rajesh & De, Sankar & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2006. "Financing firms in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3975, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 2005. "Which "industrial policies" are meaningful for Latin America?," Textos para discussão 493, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  14. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Shubhashis Gangopadhyay & Shagun Krishnan, 2006. "Reforms, Entry and Productivity: Some Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Sector," IZA Discussion Papers 2086, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Singh, Nirvikar, 2006. "Services-Led Industrialization in India: Assessment and Lessons," MPRA Paper 1276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sumon Bhaumik & Shubhasish Gangopadhyay & Shagun Krishnan, 2006. "Policy, Economic Federalism & Product Market Entry: The Indian Experience," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp843, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  17. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "Why India Can Grow at 7 Percent a Year or More: Projections and Reflections," IMF Working Papers 04/118, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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