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Chinese Economic Growth: Sources and Prospects

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Author Info

  • Wing Thye Woo
  • Michael Magill
  • Julian R. Betts

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

China's impressive growth is rooted in the liberalization of a surplus labor economy that has a high saving rate. The reallocation of surplus agriculture labor to industry and service sectors generates a growth effect that shows up in total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Net TFP, the resulting residual, contains the true measure of technological progress (among other effects). Taking account of mismeasurement problems, especially of value added in the industry sector, I calculated a plausible range of estimates for each source of growth. My point estimates for each of their contribution to the average annual 9.3 percent growth rate in the 1979-93 period growth rate in the 1985-93 subperiod are, respectively: 1979-93 1985-93 4.9 5.5 percentage points from capital accumulation 1.3 1.1 percentage points from labor force expansion. 1.1 1.3 percentage points from reallocation of labor from agriculture 0.2 0.3 percentage points from inconsistent use of base prices, 0.5Ã?0.7 0.9Ã?1.2 percentage points from overstatement of industrial growth, 1.1-1.3 0.3Ã?0.6 percentage points from net TFP growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 968.

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Date of creation: 08 Jan 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:96-8

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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo, . "Understanding China'S Economic Performance," Department of Economics 97-04, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  2. Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Granger causality tests among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302.
  3. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2005. "Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3801, The World Bank.
  4. Harry X. Wu, 2006. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-176, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao, Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," NBER Working Papers 8897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  7. Meng, Xin & Zhang, Dandan, 2010. "Labour Market Impact of Large Scale Internal Migration on Chinese Urban 'Native' Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 5288, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Xiang Ao & Lilyan E. Fulginiti, 2005. "Productivity Growth in China: Evidence from Chinese Provinces," Development and Comp Systems 0502024, EconWPA.
  9. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson & Jessica Y. Xu, 2010. "The International Effects of China's Growth, Trade and Ecucation Booms," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  10. Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "Recent Claims of China's Economic Exceptionalism: Reflections Inspired by WTO Accession," Working Papers 13, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  11. Warwick J. McKibbin & Wing Thye Woo, 2003. "The Consequences of China's WTO Accession on its Neighbors," Departmental Working Papers 2003-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  12. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," NBER Working Papers 12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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