Desired fertility and the impact of population policies
AbstractNinety percent of the differences across countries in total fertility rates are accounted for solely by differences in women's reported desired fertility. Using desired fertility constructed from both retrospective and prospective questions, together with instrumental variables estimation, it is shown this strong result is not affected by either ex-post rationalization of births nor the dependence of desired fertility on contraceptive access or cost. Moreover, despite the obvious role of contraception as a proximate determinant of fertility, the additional effect of contraceptive availability or family planning on fertility is quantitatively small and explains very little cross country variation. These empirical results are consistent with theories in which fertility is determined by parent's choices about children within the social, educational, economic, and cultural environment that parents, and especially women, face. They contradict theories that assert a large causal role for expansion of contraception in the reduction of fertility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1273.
Date of creation: 31 Mar 1994
Date of revision:
Reproductive Health; Gender and Social Development; Life Sciences&Biotechnology; Biodiversity; Poverty Reduction Strategies;
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- UN Population Predictions: Up To 15 Billion by 2100
by Tim Worstall in Tim Worstall (Forbes) on 2011-10-23 12:13:54
- Jonathan Porritt asks
by Tim Worstall in Tim Worstall on 2011-02-28 13:26:10
- The Royal Society's appallingly bad report on population and consumption
by Tim Worstall in The Telegraph Economics on 2012-04-26 12:00:00
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