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The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions

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Author Info
Giovanni L. Violante
Orazio P. Attanasio

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Abstract

This paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generation model to evaluate quantitatively how demographic transition (falling mortality and fertility rates) affects aggregate variables (wages, interest rate, output), and inter-generational welfare in closed and open economies. We perform this analysis for two economies calibrated to resemble the North (US and Europe) and Latin America. Our simulations suggest that the demographic transition could have generated income per capita growth up to 0. 5% per year in excess of steady-state growth in the past 50 years in Latin America and 0. 3% in the North.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4194.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4194

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew B. Abel, 1999. "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 6991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," DNB Working Papers 065, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "El ahorro familiar en los países en desarrollo  Desigualdad, factores demográficos y todo eso: ¿Qué tan distintos son América Latina y el Sureste de Asia?," RES Working Papers 4222, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?," RES Working Papers 4221, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Flodén, Martin, 2002. "Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Ageing Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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