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The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions

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  • Giovanni L. Violante
  • Orazio P. Attanasio

Abstract

This paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generation model to evaluate quantitatively how demographic transition (falling mortality and fertility rates) affects aggregate variables (wages, interest rate, output), and inter-generational welfare in closed and open economies. We perform this analysis for two economies calibrated to resemble the North (US and Europe) and Latin America. Our simulations suggest that the demographic transition could have generated income per capita growth up to 0. 5% per year in excess of steady-state growth in the past 50 years in Latin America and 0. 3% in the North.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4194.

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Date of creation: Feb 2000
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4194

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  1. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  2. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  4. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  5. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
  6. Andrew B. Abel, 1999. "The Social Security Trust Fund, the Riskless Interest Rate, and Capital Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 6991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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Cited by:
  1. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & Ann Harrison, . "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility In Developing Countries," Working Paper 14902, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  4. Flodén, Martin, 2002. "Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Ageing Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Feroli, Michael, 2006. "Demography and the U.S. current account deficit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
  6. Rabah, Arezki, 2011. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 79-93, June.
  7. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?," Research Department Publications 4221, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  8. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "El ahorro familiar en los países en desarrollo  Desigualdad, factores demográficos y todo eso: ¿Qué tan distintos son América Latina y el Sureste de Asia?," Research Department Publications 4222, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.

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