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Demographic Destiny, Per-Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance

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  • Dekle, Robert

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the issue of the impact of demographic change on the Japanese saving investment balance. Using updated government projections, we show that the ageing of the population under way will steadily lower Japan's saving rate from 31 per cent of GDP today to 20 per cent of GDP in 2040. Japan's investment rate will remain close to its current level of 29 per cent. Thus, Japan's saving investment balance, or current account, will steadily decrease from its current level and will turn negative in 2025. In addition, we project the impact of demographic change on the evolution of Japanese consumption per capita, or "living standards". Despite the population ageing, we project that per-capita consumption will grow until 2010. However, under certain scenarios, consumption per capita falls in most years after 2010. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Pages: 46-60

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:16:y:2000:i:2:p:46-60

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Web page: http://oxrep.oupjournals.org/

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Cited by:
  1. Feroli, Michael, 2006. "Demography and the U.S. current account deficit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, March.
  2. Michael Feroli, 2003. "Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Boyer, Robert, 2004. "Japon : de la décennie perdue à un improbable New Deal," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0404, CEPREMAP.
  4. Hiroshi Ono & Marcus E. Rebick, 2003. "Constraints on the Level and Efficient Use of Labor in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9484, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hiroshi Ono & Marcus Rebick, 2003. "Constraints on the Level and Efficient Use of Labor," NBER Chapters, in: Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, pages 225-258 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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