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Moral Hazard and the US Stockmarket: Analyzing the "Greenspan Put"

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Author Info
Marcus H. Miller () (Institute for International Economics)
Paul Weller () (Institute for International Economics)
Lei Zhang () (Institute for International Economics)

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Abstract

When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this "insurance" - referred to as the Greenspan put - is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much "irrational exuberance" as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Working Paper Series with number WP02-1.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp02-1

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lintner, John, 1975. "Inflation and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 259-80, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. " Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-73, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2000. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Has Mr. Greenspan Created a Bubble?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1902, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Firth, Michael, 1979. "The Relationship between Stock Market Returns and Rates of Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 743-49, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Edison, Hali J & Luangaram, Pongsak & Miller, Marcus, 1998. "Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1866, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Salomón Kalmanovitz, . "El Banco de la República y el Régimen de Meta de Inflación," Borradores de Economia 193, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "An Assessment of the New Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP06-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Romaniuk, Katarzyna & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Asset Prices and Assymetries in the Fed's Interest Rate Rule : a Financial Approach," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08006, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  6. Salomón Kalmanovitz, 2001. "El Banco De La República Y El Régimen De Meta De Inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002460, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcus Miller & Olli Castrén & Lei Zhang, 2007. "'Irrational exuberance' and capital flows for the US New Economy: a simple global model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 89-105. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Mazzoli, 2004. "Investments, financial structure and insiders' control of the cash-flow: an intertemporal discrete-time framework and a qualitative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 61, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marco Mazzoli, 2005. "Investments, financial structure and imperfect financial markets: An intertemporal discrete-time framework," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 247-258, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. William R. Emmons & Frank A. Schmid, 2002. "Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom," Working Papers 2002-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mazzoli, Marco, 2005. "Financial Markets and R&D Investments: A Discrete-Time Model to Interpret Public Policies," Working Papers RP2005/70, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  12. Charles Bean, 2003. "Asset Prices, Financial Imbalances and Monetary Policy: Are Inflation Targets Enough?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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