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Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis

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Author Info
Michael D. Bordo
Michael J. Dueker
David C. Wheelock

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Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence on the hypothesis that aggregate price disturbances cause or worsen financial distress. We construct two annual indexes of financial conditions for the United States covering 1790-1997, and estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on each index using a dynamic ordered probit model. We find that price level shocks contributed to financial instability during 1790-1933, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to financial instability during 1980-97. Our research indicates that the size of the aggregate price shocks needed to qualitatively alter financial conditions depends on the institutional environment, but that a monetary policy focused on price stability would be conducive to financial stability.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2000-005.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Publication status: Published in Economic Inquiry, October 2002, 40(4), pp. 521-38
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2000-005

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Keywords: Economic policy ; Inflation (Finance) ; Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 3400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Charles W. Calomiris & David C. Wheelock, 1997. "Was the Great Depression a Watershed for American Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  5. Barry Eichengreen and Richard S. Grossman., 1994. "Debt Deflation and Financial Instability: Two Historical Explorations," Economics Working Papers 94-231, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dueker, Michael, 1999. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 466-72, October.
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  7. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gray, Jo Anna & Spencer, David E, 1990. "Price Prediction Errors and Real Activity: A Reassessment," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 658-81, October.
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2000. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: An Historical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R. Alton Gilbert, 1989. "Bank runs and private remedies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 43-61. [Downloadable!]
  12. Weber, Ernst Juerg, 1986. "The causes of bank failures: deflationary spells," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 359-362. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial instability: a historical analysis," Working Papers 2000-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Bordo, 2000. "Sound Money and Sound Financial Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 129-155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Carolyn Currie, 2003. "Towards a General Theory of Financial Regulation: Predicting, Measuring and Preventing Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 132, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "Asset Prices, Financial Fragility, and Central Banking," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_456, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gertjan W. Vlieghe, . "Indicators of fragility in the UK corporate sector," Bank of England working papers 146, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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