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Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s

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  • Eugene N. White

Abstract

This paper surveys the twentieth century booms and crashes in the American stock market, focusing on a comparison of the two most similar events in the 1920s and 1990s. In both booms, claims were made that they were the consequence a "new economy" or "irrational exuberance." Neither boom can be readily explained by fundamentals, represented by expected dividend growth or changes in the equity premium. The difficulty of identifying the fundamentals implies that central banks would not be successful in preventing pre-emptive policies, although they still would have a critical role to play in preventing crashes from disrupting the payments system or sparking an intermediation crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugene N. White, 2006. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 12138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12138
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    Cited by:

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    2. Brady Ryan R & Stimel Derek S, 2011. "How the Housing and Financial Wealth Effects Have Changed over Time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, August.
    3. Stasys Girdzijauskas & Dalia Štreimikiene, 2008. "Application of logistic models for stock market bubbles analysis," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 45-51, November.
    4. Lansing, Kevin J., 2012. "Speculative growth, overreaction, and the welfare cost of technology-driven bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 461-483.
    5. Lansing, Kevin, 2009. "Speculative Bubbles and Overreaction to Technological Innovation," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 26, pages 51-54.
    6. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska & Suzana Makreshanska, 2015. "The Global Economic Crisis - What Should Not Be Forgotten," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 99-112, June.
    7. Michael Brocker & Christopher Hanes, 2014. "The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression: Evidence from City Cross-Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 161-201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    9. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
    10. repec:rim:rimwps:33-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Siab Mamipour & Mahshid Sepahi, 2015. "Analysis of the Behavior of Amateur and Professional Investors’ Impact on the Formation of Bubbles in Tehran Stock Market," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 341-358, Autumn.
    12. Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2019. "Lessons learned from the global recession - redesigned framework of key macroeconomic policies," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 468-489.
    13. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    14. Man Fu & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2011. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, December.
    15. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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