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Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?

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Author Info
Goodhart, Charles
Hofmann, Boris
Abstract

With goods prices being sticky, monetary impulses are initially transmitted to the real economy via changes in asset prices; and asset price fluctuations can independently affect monetary and real developments. Most empirical models try to incorporate such monetary-asset price interactions by the inclusion of a short-term interest rate and the exchange rate, but there are good reasons to doubt the sufficiency of this. Here we examine whether the predictive power of a reduced form equation for inflation, including standard explanatory variables, can be improved by adding other asset price variables, i.e. the changes in housing and equity prices and a yield spread. In our cross-country time series exercise, we find that housing price movements do provide useful extra information on future inflation, with equity prices and the yield spread being somewhat less informative. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 68 (2000)
Issue (Month): 0 (Supplement)
Pages: 122-40
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:0:p:122-40

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  1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "A cost-of-living dynamic price index, with an application to indexing retirement accounts," CEPR Discussion Papers 5394, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bjørnland , Hilde & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Research Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. P. Siklos & M. Bohl, 2006. "Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule," Working Papers eg0053, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  6. I. Arnold & P.J.A. van Els & J. de Haan, 2002. "Wealth Effects and Monetary Policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 719, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2006. "Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices," Working Papers 06-25, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  9. Eric Tymoigne, 2006. "Asset Prices, Financial Fragility, and Central Banking," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_456, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  10. M.F. Bryan & S.G. Cecchetti & R. O'Sullivan, 2001. "Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 62, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Luigi, Cannari & Giovanni, D'Alessio & Grazia, Marchese, 2008. "Italian Household Wealth: Background, Main Results, Outlook," MPRA Paper 15106, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth, 2007. "Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Stock market booms and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 91-122. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sònia Muñoz, 2006. "Wealth Effects in Europe: A Tale of Two Countries (Italy and the United Kingdom)," IMF Working Papers 06/30, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2006. "When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms," Working Papers 2006-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. David Laidler & Robin Banerjee, 2008. "Unstable Foundations: Assets Markets, Inflation Targets, and Canada's 2011 Policy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 278, December. [Downloadable!]
  17. Stephen P Millard & Simon J Wells, . "The role of asset prices in transmitting monetary and other shocks," Bank of England working papers 188, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "A Dynamic Measure of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 11746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Andrew J. Filardo, 2001. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : some experimental results," Research Working Paper RWP 01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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