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Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?

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  • Breitenlechner, Max
  • Mathy, Gabriel P.
  • Scharler, Johann

Abstract

We measure the contributions of loan supply shocks and other macroeconomic shocks to U.S. output dynamics during the Great Depression. Using structural vector autoregressions, we impose sign restrictions to identify shocks. We find that loan supply shocks contributed negatively to output growth between 1931 and 1933, at the same time as the U.S. experienced several waves of banking crises. Thus, our results support the view that disruptions in credit availability contributed to the depth and length of the Great Depression. We also find that adverse aggregate demand and monetary policy shocks were important factors in the downturn.

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  • Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:79:y:2021:i:c:s0014498320300814
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101379
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Depression; Loan supply shocks; Structural vector autoregression; Sign restrictions; Historical decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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