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An Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Shocks in the Interwar Period

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  • McMillin, W Douglas
  • Parker, Randall E

Abstract

This paper presents results that indicate that oil price shocks were economically important in explaining movements in industrial production and, to a lesser degree, movements in wholesale prices in the period between World Wars I and II. The framework for analysis is a vector autoregressive model estimated using monthly data over 1924:2-38:6 that employs a financial intermediation variable, a measure of relative oil prices, and other variables typically found in small macroeconomic models. The impact of oil price shocks is evaluated through computation of variance decompositions and an historical decomposition over the 1929:9-38:6 period. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • McMillin, W Douglas & Parker, Randall E, 1994. "An Empirical Analysis of Oil Price Shocks in the Interwar Period," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 486-497, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:32:y:1994:i:3:p:486-97
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    Cited by:

    1. Hillard G. Huntington, 2017. "The Historical Roots of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. K. Lawler; A. Alshriaan, 2018. "The Impact Of The 2008 Oil Price Collapse On Kuwait Gdp 2008-2012: An Estimation Based On Stochastic Logistical Methods," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 4(199), pages 62-66.
    3. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    4. Mark Wheeler, 1999. "The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 273-284, September.
    5. Breitenlechner, Max & Mathy, Gabriel P. & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were loan supply shocks?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Huntington, Hillard, 2016. "The Historical “Roots” of U.S. Energy Price Shocks: Supplemental Results," MPRA Paper 74701, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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