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Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand

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  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

The paper presents an intertemporal general equilibrium model with rationing in the product market, in which stationary sunspot equilibria are shown to exist, indicating the possibility of fluctuations in economic activity simply due to self-fulfilling variations in economic agents' expectations. Specifically, revised expectations about future aggregate demand change current investment demand, which (amplified by a multiplier" process) then affects current aggregate demand. Parameter values required for endogenous fluctuations are discussed, as well as quantitative properties of the fluctuations predicted. Countercyclical stabilization policies are shown to rule out such equilibria.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3361.

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Date of creation: May 1990
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Publication status: published as N.G. Mankiw and D. Romer, eds., New Keynesian Economics, Vol. 2, pp.77-110, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1991.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3361

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  1. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 2147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1987. "Why Does Money Affect Output? A Survey," Working papers 453, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1992. "Oligopolistic Pricing and the Effects of Aggregate Demand on Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1153-1207, December.
  4. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-90, December.
  5. Carlton, Dennis W, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September.
  6. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 55-66, February.
  7. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  8. Julio Rotemberg, 1987. "The New Keynesian Microfoundations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 69-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  12. Woglom, Geoffrey, 1982. "Underemployment Equilibrium with Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 89-107, February.
  13. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "Market Structure and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 285-338.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel John Zizzo, 2005. "Inferential Expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2005-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Working Papers 2006-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Jahangir Aziz & Luc Leruth, 1999. "Cyclical Effects of the Composition of Government Purchases," Macroeconomics 9902007, EconWPA.
  4. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February.
  5. Bill Dupor, 1999. "Keynesian conundrum: multiplicity and time consistent stabilization," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 131, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Steven M. Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Edward Greenberg, 1999. "Aggregate Demand and Micro Behavior: A New Perspective on Keynesian Macroeconomics," Macroeconomics 9902005, EconWPA.
  7. Harrison, Sharon G & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Wen, Yi, 2008. "A Note On Oil Dependence And Economic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 717-723, November.
  9. Jordi Gali, 1995. "Non-Walrasian Unemployment Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Imperfect competition and sunspots," Working Papers 2006-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  12. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2004. "Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy," NIPE Working Papers 5/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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