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A model of financial fragility

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Author Info
Roger D. Lagunoff
Stacey L. Schreft

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Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic, stochastic game-theoretic model of financial fragility. The model has two essential features. First, interrelated portfolios and payment commitments forge financial linkages among agents. Second, iid shocks to investment projects’ operations at a single date cause some projects to fail. Investors who experience losses from project failures reallocate their portfolios, thereby breaking some linkages. In the Pareto-efficient symmetric equilibrium studied, two related types of financial crises can occur in response. One occurs gradually as defaults spread, causing even more links to break. An economy is more fragile ex post the more severe this financial crisis. The other type of crisis occurs instantaneously when forward-looking investors preemptively shift their wealth into a safe asset in anticipation of the contagion affecting them in the future. An economy is more fragile ex ante the earlier all of its linkages break from such a crisis. The paper also considers whether fragility is worse for larger economies.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 98-01.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:98-01

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Keywords: Financial crises;

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  2. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stephen Morrs, . ""Contagion''," CARESS Working Papres 97-01, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Russell Cooper & Dean Corbae, 1997. "Financial Fragility and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 6094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew Atkeson & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: an alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Staff Report 212, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
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  7. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2004. "Credit Chains," ESE Discussion Papers 118, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  8. Krasa, Stefan & Villamil, Anne P, 1992. "A Theory of Optimal Bank Size," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 725-49, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1976. "Optimal Financial Crises," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe, 1997. "Hot Money," NBER Working Papers 6007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  15. Hiroshi Fujiki & Edward J. Green & Akira Yamazaki, 1999. "Sharing the risk of settlement failure," Working Papers 594, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James B. Bullard & Christopher J. Neely & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Systemic risk and the financial crisis: a primer," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 403-418. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1999. "Financial Contagion," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2092, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yaron Leitner, 2004. "Financial networks: contagion, commitment, and private sector bailouts," Working Papers 02-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roger D. Lagunoff & Stacey L. Schreft, 1999. "Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance," Research Working Paper 99-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Russell Cooper & Dean Corbae, 2001. "Financial collapse and active monetary policy: a lesson from the Great Depression," Staff Report 289, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2009. "Complexity and Financial Panics," NBER Working Papers 14997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 1999. "Pricing systemic crises: monetary and fiscal policy when savers are uncertain," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. James Peck & Karl Shell, 2003. "Bank Portfolio Restrictions and Equilibrium Bank Runs," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000077, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 1998. "A rational expectations model of financial contagion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. R. Andergassen, 2002. "financial contagion and asset price dynamics," Working Papers 448, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ana Babus, 2007. "The Formation of Financial Networks," Working Papers 2007.69, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Zsolt Becsi & Victor Li & Ping Wang, . "Mismatch in Credit Markets," Departmental Working Papers 2002-03, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Franz R. Hahn, 1998. "Currency Crises. A Challenge for Economic Theory and Policy," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 3(4), pages 183-190, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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