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Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning

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  • Evans, G.W.
  • Honkapohja ,S.
  • Mitra, K.

Abstract

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. We analyze these issues using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our set-up there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. Our approach could be applied to many macroeconomic frameworks.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe0705.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0705.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0705

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Keywords: Taxation; expectations; Ramsey model;

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References

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  1. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Paul Romer, 1996. "Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
  6. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2004. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," Macroeconomics 0404009, EconWPA.
  8. Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  12. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
  14. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  15. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
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  17. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  18. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt41f2h196, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  19. Eusepi, Stefano & Preston, Bruce, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
  20. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  21. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  22. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Macroeconomics 0510022, EconWPA.
  23. Cho, In-Koo & Sargent, Thomas J., 2000. "Escaping Nash inflation," Working Paper Series 0023, European Central Bank.
  24. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  25. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
  26. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
  27. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
  28. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  29. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. George W. Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 05 Jun 2007.
  2. Gasteiger, Emanuel & Zhang, Shoujian, 2011. "Anticipation, learning and welfare: the case of distortionary taxation," MPRA Paper 30625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  4. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2011. "Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 3435, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Martin ZUMPE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Modelling Social Learning in an Agent-Based New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  6. Liam Graham, 2011. "Individual rationality, model-consistent expectations and learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 201112, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  7. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & James Malley, 2010. "The distributional consequences of supply-side reforms in general equilibrium," Working Papers 2010_26, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2012.
  9. Liam Graham, 2011. "Learning, information and heterogeneity," CDMA Working Paper Series 201113, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

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