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Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty

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  • P. A. Tinsley

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is the primary transmission channel of monetary policy. Under the expectations hypothesis, anticipated settings of the short-term interest rate controlled by the central bank are the main determinants of nominal bond rates. Historical experience suggests that bond rates may remain relatively high even if the short-term interest rate is reduced to zero, in part due to term premiums reflecting uncertainty about future policy. Term spreads due to policy uncertainty may be reduced by central bank trading desk options that provide insurance against future deviations from an announced interest rate policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-14.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-14

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Bonds;

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References

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  1. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  3. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
  4. Jeffrey Fuhrer & Brian Madigan, 1994. "Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Papers 94-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Miltersen, Kristian R & Sandmann, Klaus & Sondermann, Dieter, 1997. " Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 409-30, March.
  7. Merton, Robert C., 1995. "Financial innovation and the management and regulation of financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 461-481, June.
  8. Robert Tetlow & John C. Williams, 1998. "Implementing price stability bands, boundaries and inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  9. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1998. "Term structure views of monetary policy," Research Working Paper 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," CEPR Discussion Papers 3892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  12. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
  13. Turnbull, Stuart M. & Wakeman, Lee Macdonald, 1991. "A Quick Algorithm for Pricing European Average Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 377-389, September.
  14. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  16. Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Possible Effects of European Monetary Union on Switzerland: A Case Study of Policy Dilemmas Caused by Low Inflation and the Nominal Interest Rate Floor," IMF Working Papers 97/23, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Fedenia, Mark & Grammatikos, Theoharry, 1992. "Options Trading and the Bid-Ask Spread of the Underlying Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 335-51, July.
  18. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in an Estimated Model with Labour Market Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2008. "From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects," MPRA Paper 10844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. James Clouse & Dale Henderson & Athanasios Orphanides & David H. Small & P.A. Tinsley, 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 0(1), pages 12.
  6. Martin Melecky & Diego Rodríguez Palenzuela & Ulf Söderström, 2008. "Inflation Target Transparency and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 490, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Chiara Oldani, 2006. "money demand and futures," ISAE Working Papers 69, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  8. Chiara Oldani, 2005. "An Overview of the Literature about Derivatives," Macroeconomics 0504004, EconWPA.
  9. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario & Chiara Oldani, 2000. "On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 149-175, August.
  10. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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