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Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty

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  • P. A. Tinsley

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is the primary transmission channel of monetary policy. Under the expectations hypothesis, anticipated settings of the short-term interest rate controlled by the central bank are the main determinants of nominal bond rates. Historical experience suggests that bond rates may remain relatively high even if the short-term interest rate is reduced to zero, in part due to term premiums reflecting uncertainty about future policy. Term spreads due to policy uncertainty may be reduced by central bank trading desk options that provide insurance against future deviations from an announced interest rate policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-14.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-14

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Keywords: Interest rates ; Bonds;

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  8. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1988. "The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates during the Great Depression," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1111-41, December.
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  10. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998. "Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April.
  11. Fedenia, Mark & Grammatikos, Theoharry, 1992. "Options Trading and the Bid-Ask Spread of the Underlying Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 335-51, July.
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  13. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
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  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  16. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
  17. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1998. "Term structure views of monetary policy," Research Working Paper 98-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  18. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
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Cited by:
  1. Sala, Luca & Söderström, Ulf & Trigari, Antonella, 2008. "Monetary policy under uncertainty in an estimated model with labor market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 983-1006, July.
  2. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2008. "From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects," MPRA Paper 10844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Paolo Savona & Aurelio Maccario & Chiara Oldani, 2000. "On Monetary Analysis of Derivatives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 149-175, August.
  4. Chiara Oldani, 2005. "An Overview of the Literature about Derivatives," Macroeconomics 0504004, EconWPA.
  5. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August.
  6. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
  7. Chiara Oldani, 2006. "money demand and futures," ISAE Working Papers 69, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  8. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Term premia : endogenous constraints on monetary policy," Research Working Paper RWP 02-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

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