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The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914

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  • Robert B. Barsky
  • N. Gregory Mankiw
  • Jeffrey A. Miron
  • David N. Weil

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of the destruction of the gold standard and the founding of the Federal Reserve, both of which occurred in 1914, in contributing to observed changes in the behavior of interest rates and prices after 1914. The paper presents a model of policy coordination in which the introduction of the Fed stabilizes interest rates, even if the gold standard remains intact, and it offers empirical evidence that the dismantling of the gold standard did not play a crucial role in precipitating the changes in interest rate behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1987. "The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914," NBER Working Papers 2344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2344
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    6. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-374, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727.
    2. Craighead, William D. & Tien, Pao-Lin, 2015. "Nominal shocks and real exchange rates: Evidence from two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 135-157.
    3. Alberto Giovannini, 1988. "How Do Fixed-Exchange-Rates Regimes Work: The Evidence From The Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and The EMS," NBER Working Papers 2766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(May), pages 3-22.
    5. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    6. Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "Stock Return Predictability before the First World War," IRENE Working Papers 22-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wen, Yi, 1999. "The Business Cycle Effects of Seasonal Shocks," Working Papers 00-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    9. Eugene N. White, 2011. ""To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking": How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision," NBER Working Papers 16825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Santos, Joseph, 2003. "Commodity futures contracts: Furnishing an elastic currency in the nineteenth century," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 561-578, December.

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