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Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed

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Miron, Jeffrey A

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Abstract

After the founding of the Fed in 1914, the frequency of financial panics and the size of the seasonal movements in nominal interest ratesboth declined substantially. This paper establishes that the Fed, by carrying out the seasonal open market policy that eliminated the seasonal in nominal interest rates, caused the decrease in the frequency of panics. Since seasonal movements are anticipated and financial panics are probably real events, the results show that an anticipated monetary policy had real effects on the economy. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 76 (1986)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 125-40
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:76:y:1986:i:1:p:125-40

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Working Papers 14686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gary Gorton & Lixin Huang, 2002. "Bank Panics and the Endogeneity of Central Banking," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-29, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hortlund, Per, 2005. "Clearing vs. Leakage: Does Note Monopoly Increase Money and Credit Cycles?," Ratio Working Papers 67, The Ratio Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alton Gilbert, 1999. "Effects of Federal Reserve services on the efficiency of the system for collecting checks in the United States: 1915--30," Working Papers 1999-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's Real About the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 11161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cavalcanti, Ricardo de Oliveira & Nosal, Ed, 2005. "Some Benefits of Cyclical Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 603, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  8. Xavier Freixas & Anthony M. Santomero, 2002. "An overall perspective on banking regulation," Working Papers 02-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Charles W. Calomiris & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "International Adjustment Under the Classical Gold Standard: Evidence for the U.S. and Britain, 1879-1914," NBER Working Papers 2206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Eric Ghysels, 1992. "Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1027, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Loan Commitments and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Charles GRANT, 2003. "Estimating Credit Constraints among US Households," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/14, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. C.A.E. Goodhart & P. Sunirand & D.P. Tsomocos, 2008. "The Optimal Monetary Instrument for Prudential Purposes," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe26, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Cormac Ó Gráda & Eugene N White, 2002. "Who Panics during Panics? Evidence from a Nineteenth Century Bank," Working Papers 200212, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
  16. Huberto M. Ennis, 2003. "Economic fundamentals and bank runs," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 55-71. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roberto Chang, 2000. "Dollarization: a scorecard," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  18. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1989. "The Worldwide Change in the Behavior of Interest Rates and Prices in 1914," NBER Working Papers 2344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Nancy Silva, 2008. "Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and the Risk of Runs," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 474, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  20. Xavier Freixas, 2003. "An Overall Perspective on Banking Regulation," Economics Working Papers 664, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  21. Hortlund, Per, 2005. "Clearing vs. Leakage: Does Note monopoly Increase Money and Credit Cycles?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 600, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  22. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2002. "Charles Goodhart's Contributions to the History of Monetary Institutions," NBER Working Papers 8717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Ricardo de O. Cavalcanti & Ed Nosal, 2005. "Some benefits of cyclical monetary policy," Working Paper 0511, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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