Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Temporary Stabilization and the Real Option of Waiting when Consumption can be Delayed: an Extreme Value Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Francisco Venegas-Martínez

Abstract

This paper develops, in a small open economy framework, a stochastic model of exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization that is expected to be temporary. Agents have expectations of devaluation driven by a mixed diffusion-jump process where the expected size of a possible devaluation is supposed to have an extreme value distribution of the Fréchet type; as the stylized facts from the Mexican's 1994 and Argentinean's 2001 cases have show n. Consumption and wealth equilibrium dynamics are examined when a stabilization plan is implemented. The case of a stochastic stabilization horizon guided by an exponential distribution is studied. Moreover, this paper also deals with pricing the real option of waiting for postponing consumption when a stabilization plan is about to be abandoned; a claim on a non-traded asset. We also assess the effects of exogenous shocks on consumption and economic welfare. Finally, we use the proposed model to carry out simulation experiments that reproduces the booms of private consumption in the Mexican case of 1989-1994 and the Argentinean case of 2001-2003, which resulted in extreme devaluations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.degit.ifw-kiel.de/papers/degit_10/C010_043.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Can't connect to www.degit.ifw-kiel.de:80 (Bad hostname). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Michaela Rank)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade in its series DEGIT Conference Papers with number c010_043.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c010_043

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-206
Fax: +49 431 85853
Email:
Web page: http://www.degit.ifw-kiel.de/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Inflation stabilization; Contingent claims; Extreme values;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The business cycles of currency speculation: a revision of the Mundellian framework," International Finance Discussion Papers 617, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Mendoza, Enrique & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "The Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations and the Uncertain Duration of Currency Pegs," Working Papers 97-30, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Venegas Martínez, Francisco & Fundia Aizenstat, Andrés, 2006. "Opciones reales, valuación financiera de proyectos y estrategias de negocios. Aplicaciones al caso mexicano," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(290), pages 363-405, abril-jun.
  5. Strobel, Frank, 2005. "Monetary integration and inflation preferences: A real options analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 845-860, May.
  6. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David G., 2002. "Real options with constant relative risk aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 329-355, December.
  7. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
  8. Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2000. "On Consumption, Investment and Risk," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 227-244, July-Dece.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  11. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  12. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  13. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2005. "Política fiscal, estabilización de precios y mercado incompletos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 20(1), pages 3-25.
  15. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
  16. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c010_043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michaela Rank).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.