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The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises: A Revision of Mundellan Framework

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Martin Uribe

Abstract

In his seminal 1960 article Robert Mundell proposed a model of balance-of-payments crises in which confidence in the continuation of a currency peg depended on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the implications of a reformulation of this view from the perspective of an equilibrium business cycle model in which the probability of devaluation is an endogenous variable conditioned on foreign reserves. The model explains some business cycle regularities of exchange-rate-based stabilizations while also producing devaluation probabilities that capture some features of devaluation probabilities estimated in the data. The analysis aims to explain both the real effects and the collapse of temporary fixed-exchange-rate regimes in an unified framework, and provides an economic interpretation for the evidence that foreign reserves are a robust leading indicator of currency crises.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7045.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Publication status: published as Money, Capital Mobility and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert A. Mundell, Calvo, G., R. Dorubusch and M. Obstfeld, eds., Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000, forthcoming.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7045

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  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1986. "The optimum quantity of money rule in the theory of public finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 277-284, November.
  6. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  9. Elhanan Helpman & Assaf Razin, 1985. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradoffs," NBER Working Papers 1590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
  12. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Allan Drazen, 1997. "Uncertain Duration of Reform: Dynamic Implications," NBER Working Papers 5925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November.
  15. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November.
  16. Greenwood, Jeremy, 1983. "Expectations, the exchange rate, and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 543-569, November.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Mariassunta Giannetti, 2004. "Old and Modern Currency Crises: Short-Term Liabilities, Speculative Attacks and Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 133, Econometric Society.
  2. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry & Levin, Andrew, 2003. "Patience, persistence, and welfare costs of incomplete markets in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 385-396, December.
  3. Zhang, Yan, 2008. "Does the utility function form matter for indeterminacy in a two sector small open economy?," MPRA Paper 10045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Shujing Li & Isabel K. Yan & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/84, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Liu, Xuan, 2007. "Trade Openness and the Cost of Sudden Stops: The Role of Financial Friction," MPRA Paper 18260, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2009.

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