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Temporary stabilization: a Fréchet-Weibullextreme value distribution approach

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  • Francisco Venegas-Martinez
  • Ambrosio Ortiz-Ramírez

    ()
    (InstitutoPolitecnicoNacional)

  • Francisco Ortiz-Arango

    (Universidad Panamericana)

Abstract

This paper develops, in a small open economy of pure exchange framework, a stochastic model of exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization plan that is expected to be temporary. Agents have expectations of devaluation driven by a mixed diffusionjump process where the expected size of a possible devaluation is supposed to have an extreme value distribution of the Fréchet-Weibull type. Consumption and wealth equilibrium dynamics are examined when such a stabilization plan is implemented. It is assumed that financial markets are incomplete, that is, there are more risk factors than risky assets. Finally, the effects of exogenous shocks on economic welfare are assessed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia. in its journal EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios.

Volume (Year): 9 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (Enero-Junio)
Pages: 35-55

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Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:1:p:35-55

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Related research

Keywords: inflation stabilization; extreme values;

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References

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  1. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Exchange Rate Management: Intertemporal Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 107-23, March.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
  4. Uribe, Martin, 2002. "The price-consumption puzzle of currency pegs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 533-569, April.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-37, November.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
  9. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
  10. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1997. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
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