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Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches

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Author Info

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Abstract

Monetary integration in Mercosur processed in a context of strong macroeconomic volatility. This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union within this zone. Instead of taking in account all the criteria of the optimal currencies areas, this study focuses on the macroeconomic cycles in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. First, we analyse cross-correlation to identify the degree of cycle synchronization. Second, a structural VAR model is built for each country. It allows us to determine the sources of shocks which hit these countries. Third, we decompose structural innovations -especially economic policies shocks- of domestic SVAR into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components using a state-space model. We assess in what extent economic policies are coordinated between the Mercosur countries.

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File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/13/43/17/PDF/WP2006-15.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00134317.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00134317

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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles ; OCA; Comovement ; VAR ; Unobserved components model ; Mercosur;

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  1. Robert Rennhack & Masahiro Nozaki, 2006. "Financial Dollarization in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/7, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," CEMA Working Papers 594, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
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  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
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  6. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1994. "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry A Comparison of Europe and the United States," International Finance 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
  7. Hochreiter, Eduard & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Winckler, Georg, 2002. "Monetary union: European lessons, Latin American prospects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 297-321, December.
  8. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Barry Eichengreen., 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-103, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Norman Loayza & J. Humberto Lopez & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Sectorial Macroeconomic Interdependencies," IMF Working Papers 99/11, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Nick Chamie (Bank of Canada), & Alain DeSerres (Bank of Canada), & Rene Lalonde (Bank of Canada), . "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry: A Comparison of Europe and the United States," Working Papers 94-1, Bank of Canada.
  14. Paul Hallwood & Ian W. Marsh & Joerg Scheibe, 2004. "An Assessment of the Case for Monetary Union or Official Dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela," Working papers 2004-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  15. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  16. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  17. Eichengreen, Barry & Taylor, Alan M, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas," CEPR Discussion Papers 3909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  19. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  20. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  21. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
  22. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs - Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
  23. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  24. repec:rus:hseeco:123906 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2007. "Modeling the impact of real and financial shocks on Mercosur: the role of the exchange rate regime," Post-Print halshs-00142506, HAL.
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
  4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  5. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.

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