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The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas

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  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can enhance monetary cooperation and integration, it is not clear that Europe's experience translates to Latin America, where the political circumstances are different. We try to understand whether the monetary consequences of existing regional trade agreements, including but not limited to the European Union, mainly reflect spillovers from trade integration, or whether observed outcomes have been mainly about politics. Our results incline us toward the latter interpretation, leaving us pessimistic about the basis for deeper monetary cooperation. If exchange rate volatility is to be tamed, then the more widespread adoption of inflation targeting, which we find to be associated with a significant reduction in bilateral exchange rate volatility, may be the most promising path.

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  • Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9666
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    Cited by:

    1. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    3. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo & Daniel Lederman & Maurizio Bussolo & David Gould & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Challenges of CAFTA : Maximizing the Benefits for Central America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7127, December.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Disentangling Business Cycles and Macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and an Unobserved Components Models Approaches," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 482-514.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    8. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2005. "One Market, One Money: Evidence from Canada–United States Economic Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7), pages 985-1003, July.
    9. Belhadj, ARAM & Bouguezzi, WAJDI & Jedlane, NABIL, 2009. "A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?," MPRA Paper 29701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?," NBER Working Papers 14100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. José Maria FANELLI, 2007. "Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR," G-24 Discussion Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    12. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi & Giovanni Ferri, 2006. "Revisiting the European Monetary System Experience: Were Some Members More Equal than Others?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(2), pages 151-172, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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