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Transmission des chocs et mécanismes d'ajustement dans le Mercosur

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Alain Sand-Zantman

Abstract

This paper studies the feasibility of a monetary union in Mercosur. A semi-structural VAR model is estimated for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. The structural innovations generated by each country model are broken down into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using an unobservable components model. This paper exhibits significant evidences inconsistent with a monetary integration. The experiments with the VAR models do not show any convergence of economic policies of the Member States. The unobservable components model confirms as the asymmetry of exogenous shocks than the low level of policy synchronicity. Finally, the idiosyncratic responses to the external financial shocks suggest that the differences of exchange rate regimes do not ease convergence and coordination. JEL codes: C32, E32, F42.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 101 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 355-392

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0355

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