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The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Taylor, Alan M

Abstract

How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can enhance monetary cooperation and integration, it is not clear that Europe’s experience translates to Latin America, where the political circumstances are different. We try to understand whether the monetary consequences of existing regional trade agreements, including but not limited to the European Union, mainly reflect spillovers from trade integration, or whether observed outcomes have been mainly about politics. Our results incline us toward the latter interpretation, leaving us pessimistic about the basis for deeper monetary cooperation. If exchange rate volatility is to be tamed, then the more widespread adoption of inflation targeting, which we find to be associated with a significant reduction in bilateral exchange rate volatility, may be the most promising path.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3909.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3909

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Keywords: exchange rates; regional trade arrangements;

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  1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Barry Eichengreen., 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-103, University of California at Berkeley.
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  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
  3. Belhadj, ARAM & Bouguezzi, WAJDI & Jedlane, NABIL, 2009. "A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?," MPRA Paper 29701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Jose Maria Fanelli, 2004. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
  5. José Maria FANELLI, 2007. "Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR," G-24 Discussion Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  8. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo & Daniel Lederman & Maurizio Bussolo & David Gould & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Challenges of CAFTA : Maximizing the Benefits for Central America," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7127, August.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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