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The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Taylor, Alan M

Abstract

How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can enhance monetary cooperation and integration, it is not clear that Europe’s experience translates to Latin America, where the political circumstances are different. We try to understand whether the monetary consequences of existing regional trade agreements, including but not limited to the European Union, mainly reflect spillovers from trade integration, or whether observed outcomes have been mainly about politics. Our results incline us toward the latter interpretation, leaving us pessimistic about the basis for deeper monetary cooperation. If exchange rate volatility is to be tamed, then the more widespread adoption of inflation targeting, which we find to be associated with a significant reduction in bilateral exchange rate volatility, may be the most promising path.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3909.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3909

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Keywords: exchange rates; regional trade arrangements;

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  1. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
  2. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
  3. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, July.
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  7. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence From the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Working Papers 5283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eichengreen, B, 1996. "A More Perfect Union? The Logic of Economic Integration," Princeton Essays in International Economics 198, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Barry Eichengreen., 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-103, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-87, October.
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, July.
  15. Heliodoro Temprano Arroyo, 2002. "Latin America's integration processes in the light of the EU's experience with EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 173, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  17. Eichengreen, B. & Masson, P. & Savastano, M. & Sharma, S., 1999. "Transition Strategies and Nominal Anchors on the Road to Greater Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Princeton Essays in International Economics 213, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  18. Laurence H. Meyer & Brian M. Doyle & Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 2002. "International coordination of macroeconomic policies: still alive in the new millennium?," International Finance Discussion Papers 723, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Jose Maria Fanelli, 2004. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
  4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Post-Print halshs-00134317, HAL.
  5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  6. José Maria FANELLI, 2007. "Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR," G-24 Discussion Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  7. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?," NBER Working Papers 14100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo & Daniel Lederman & Maurizio Bussolo & David Gould & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Challenges of CAFTA : Maximizing the Benefits for Central America," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7127, July.
  9. Belhadj, ARAM & Bouguezzi, WAJDI & Jedlane, NABIL, 2009. "A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?," MPRA Paper 29701, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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